I’m sure you’re itching to get into the writing process, and we will, very soon! But this book isn’t just about writing a book; it’s about writing, marketing, and actually selling a book. So, before you start writing your book, you need to make sure that someone will actually buy it when you’re finished. That requires readers. More specifically, it requires customers. Writers fantasize about releasing a book so brilliant and captivating that it goes viral organically and becomes a bestseller. Barnes & Noble will place it on the shelf and it will sell out. That can happen, but it’s incredibly rare. More often, books are released by a trusted voice to an audience of loyal fans. The size of that audience determines whether or not the book becomes a “bestseller.” 

This may feel demoralizing. Maybe you’ve been turned down for a publishing contract because your platform isn’t big enough. It’s disheartening to have to think about selling a book when all you really want to do is write it. But whether you’re using a publishing company or self-publishing your book, building your audience is a core, essential part of the process—one that you can and should start at least a year before you have a book to sell them. This will ensure your readers are on board by the time your book comes out. 

Authors, in general, are wildly unrealistic. You have to be to write a book. But when it comes to how many copies they will sell, they either think, “My book will change the world,” or “No one will buy this.” Neither is helpful. With a few calculations I will show you in this chapter, you can get a reasonably accurate estimate for how many books you will sell before you begin.

We will dive much deeper into marketing and platform building in the Marketing section of the book, but you must start the process now. Each time we work with new authors at Word and Craft, they’re surprised that this is where we start. Shouldn’t we be writing? Not yet. First we need to start building an audience. There’s an old adage that the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago, and the second best time is today. The same is true about an audience. It would be amazing if you already had tens of thousands of readers, but you probably don’t. So we need to find them. “But I’d rather be writing my book. I want to be an author, not an influencer.” I understand. But writing a book and hoping 5,000 people who don’t know who you are will buy it is living in la la land. I’m certainly not telling you to try and be an influencer. What we want to do is build a loyal fan base who will not only buy your book, but help you market it to others. 

You may have heard about the quintessential article written by Wired co-founder, Kevin Kelly, about having “1,000 true fans.” Kelly’s argument is that you don’t have to be famous or go viral to make a living as an artist. You just need 1,000 people who will buy everything you produce. These are the people who will buy the deluxe edition for twice the price. They will pay for the exclusive access. They’re not just followers, they’re raving fans.¹

I agree with Kelly’s premise, but I would argue that if your only product is a book, you need more than 1,000 fans to make a living—more on this in chapter _____. But the principle is the same: You don’t have to have a million followers to be an author; you just need a few thousand people who love what you write and want to support you. 

You need to find these supporters, and you need their email addresses. This is an important distinction. Don’t just focus on follower count—the real goal is to collect their email address. When someone gives you their email address, they are giving you permission to communicate with them, and beginning the process of a trusted relationship. People on your email list will purchase your book at a much higher rate than your social media followers. I like how serial entrepreneur Noah Kagan said it: “Social Media is for followers. Email is for profit.”

While you’re writing your book over the next 12 to 18 months, you will use the right platforms and tools to build your audience. The best strategy is to focus on one social media platform you enjoy, and where you believe you will find the most people interested in your topic. Be yourself, post consistently to build trust, then create a valuable exchange for their email address. This might be an email newsletter with helpful or entertaining  information, a free downloadable product, or early access to some of your writing.³

The most important piece is getting their email address and building trust through value and consistent communication. We will talk much more about how to build trust and market your book in Part 7, but for now, what’s important is to start building your audience.

Advanced Tip:
As you build your email list, use tags to put people into interest-specific segments. That will allow you to send them targeted communication when your book releases. For example, I always include links in my emails for other books. Then I tag anyone who clicks the link as “reader,” letting me know they are someone who considers book recommendations. A “reader” is more likely to click on a book link in the future, because they’ve learned to trust me, which means they are more likely to purchase something from me.

Figure Out Your Current Audience Size

Before you begin building your audience, it will be helpful to know what your current audience size is. For our purposes, the term “audience” just means the number of people who know who you are and would recognize your name if they saw it on a book cover. They will drive the majority of your book sales. 

Let me give you a formula to help you predict how many books you will sell based on your current audience. This exercise will give you a very loose estimate—it’s not intended to be exact. The purpose is to give you a realistic view of how many books you might sell before much marketing.

While it’s not an exact science, I didn’t make these numbers up out of thin air. I have kept track of my sales numbers over the years of writing and selling books, and I’ve noticed some data trends. These numbers are only based on my experience, but I think they can at least help you start your estimate.

First, let’s define your “Inner Circle.” These are the people who wouldn’t be surprised to get a message from you. They:

• Have your phone number
• Have worked with you
• Attend your church or club
• Are in a group you directly lead

Not all “audience” is equal. A textable friend is much more likely to buy something to support you than a passive Instagram follower is.

Next, let’s define your “Engaged Audience.” These are people you are not personally connected to, but have an online or working relationship with:

• Email subscribers
• Regular podcast listeners
• Engaged social media followers (ones who comment on your posts or DM you sometimes)
• Clients and former clients

These are the people who will buy because they trust you.

Last, let’s define your “Passive Audience.” These are the hardest to count, because the connections are loose. Some examples might be:

• Total social media followers
• Conference audiences
• Other members of an online group where you post regularly

Next, we need to estimate how much of your audience will purchase your book. Since not all audiences are created equal, I’ve provided some percentages to estimate how each audience will purchase.

(Total number of Inner Circle x .4)
(Total number of Engaged Audience x .15)
(Total number of Passive Audience x .03)

For example:
300 Inner Circle x 0.4 = 120
2,500 Engaged Audience x .15 = 375
5,000 Passive Audience x .03 = 150

Based on these numbers, someone could reasonably expect to sell around 650 books in the first few months of release.

Here are a few other things to factor in:

Will your book sell in bulk? If the subject of your book is such that other leaders would buy some to give away or sell for you, you can add numbers to the first audience.

For example, I have a client, Angelina, who wrote “The Business of Beauty,” and sold her book as a textbook to beauty schools. She might sell 500 to 1,000 more copies depending on the number of interested schools.

Required Purchase Environments? Is your book going to be required reading? I have a client, Craig, who wrote “Driven.” Craig is in the insurance business, and more than 1,000 new sales recruits join his company each year. Since his book is about business lessons he’s learned in insurance, he added it as required reading to the onboarding process. That means Craig can sell another 1,000 books each year. Do you have an opportunity like that? If so, add the first year’s numbers to your total.

Without being overly optimistic, I think we could assume, based on the numbers above and some other factors, we could sell 1,000 books in the first few months. But our goal is to sell at least 5,000 books, so we’ve got work to do. The good news is we’ve got plenty of time. 

Your numbers may be much higher or lower than the example I provided, but the point is that if you make building your audience a priority, you can have more readers than you have right now when you release your book. Remember, books with larger audiences sell more copies.

Now that you’ve started building an audience, and you’re committed to being consistent in growing it, it’s time to start writing your book.